El Nino

Timeline

1. 3 Sep2026
   Environment

   WMO says El Nino is firmly established and could become very strong¹²³

   WMO's 3 September 2026 update gives a near 100% likelihood that El Nino persists through February 2027, with a possible very strong peak near the end of 2026. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast.

   • WMO El Nino update dated 3 September 2026
   • Near 100% likelihood El Nino persists through February 2027
   • Expected to peak towards the end of 2026
   • Positive Indian Ocean Dipole forecast for September to November
2. 2 Jun2026
   Environment

   WMO: El Nino likely, 80% chance in June-August 2026⁴⁵

   The WMO's June 2026 El Nino/La Nina update gave an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing during June to August, with odds of persistence to November near or above 90 percent. WMO urged preparation for drought, heavy rain and heatwaves.

   • WMO update issued 2 June 2026
   • 80% likelihood of El Nino during June-August 2026
   • Likelihood of El Nino lasting to at least November near or above 90%
   • Most models point to at least a moderate event
3. 29 May2026
   Environment

   IMD cuts monsoon forecast to 90 percent of LPA as El Nino builds; more heatwave days likely in June⁶⁷⁸

   On 29 May 2026 IMD lowered its monsoon forecast to 90 percent of the long period average (down from 92 percent in April), citing a developing El Nino, and warned of more heatwave days in June.

   • IMD's 29 May 2026 update put monsoon rainfall at 90 percent of the long period average (plus or minus 4 percent), down from 92 percent in April
   • Below-normal rain expected over northwest, central and south peninsular India; near-normal in the northeast
   • El Nino expected to be weak in June, weak to moderate in July-August, and moderate to strong after September
   • IMD flagged above-normal heatwave days in June for states including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha and Gujarat

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Sources

1. WMO
2. Engineering News
3. Down To Earth
4. World Meteorological Organization
5. Khaleej Times
6. The Statesman
7. Outlook India
8. WION